In January 2018, I sponsored an independent, scientific telephone survey by Zogby Analytics of San Diego City Council District 2 voters. The survey predicted the June election results almost exactly.
Worth noting: the issue of animal rights is "very important" to over a third of voters, and at least "somewhat important" to 75%:
This is the district where SeaWorld is located. The majority (54%) disagree with keeping orcas in small tanks at SeaWorld, and 38% strongly disagree with this practice:
When told the incumbent councilmember supports keeping orcas in small tanks, 42% said they were less likely to vote for her (including 24% who were much less likely), in contrast to 21% who were more likely to:
How predictive was the survey of the actual election results? Here is what the survey showed when voters were only given name and ballot title (occupation), which is the only information that appears on the ballot (no party affiliation):
Here are the actual June 2018 primary election results:
Thus, after a developer-funded SuperPAC spent hundreds of thousands of dollars sending out mailers falsely portraying Zapf as an environmentalist, she was able to bump her numbers up a few points from what the survey predicted. Campbell and I each came in at around 20% as the survey predicted, although Campbell outspent me 2 to 1 on voter communication.